Queen Elizabeth II Stakes Betting Tips & Analysis – 15th October 2016

This Saturday, Ascot hosts the British Champions Day for the sixth time and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in the fourth race of what is a truly wonderful afternoon of racing. A big field of 13 runners has been declared for this renewal so we should be in for a very action packed contest.

This is the final mile long race in the British Champions Series and for many, if not all of the names featuring, it’ll be their last chance to impress this season. With over a million pounds in prize money up for grabs, there’s rarely been a better chance to put in a top performance but time will tell who can rise to the occasion and follow names such as Frankel and Brigadier Gerard onto the roll of honour.

Trends To Look Out For

Good form coming into this race has been vital for those looking to edge out the rest of the field. Every horse in the past decade that has won this event finished in the top three in the race before, with seven of them finishing first. This is bad news for third favourite Galileo Gold who finished 8th on his most recent outing.

It’s not all bad news for Galileo Gold however, as all of the past 10 winners of this race have come from the top three in the betting, five of them having been sent off as the favourite. It’s a remarkably strong trend but perhaps one which is under threat given that this is the largest field we have seen in a long time.

Betting Tips

  • Main Pick – Galileo Gold at 11/2 with Ladbrokes
  • Alternative Tip – Lightning Spear at 12/1 with Bet365

We’ve not had a female winner of this race since 1987 and only two have placed in the last 10 years but that hasn’t stopped Minding being made the slight favourite (9/4, Coral). Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien is certainly in great form at the moment but there are reasons to avoid his three year old filly. This will be her first start over a mile since May and in her only competitive appearance against the boys so far she was a little off the pace, finishing over three lengths behind the winner, Almanzor.

One of the key trends may be against Galileo Gold (9/2, Totesport) here but he can be excused for his poor run in the Jacques Le Marois two months ago and he has the making of being an exception to the rule. His trainer, Hugo Palmer, recently pointed out that the 2000 Guineas winner didn’t have time to settle for the race in France, which came just after a narrow defeat to The Gurka at Goodwood. With two months of rest since, he is “at the peak of his powers” according to Palmer and may well be back to his best this Saturday. There is every chance this should help give him the beating of Ribchester (5/2, Sky Bet) for the third time in his career and he is the one for us.

Looking down the betting and there is one standout option who makes for a smart each way bet, Lighting Spear at nice odds of 12/1 with Bet365. The five year old secured victory in the Doom Bar Celebration Mile in August and although it was his first win of the season, it’s not the first time he’s put on a good show. When last seen at Ascot in June, he was third in the Queen Anne Stakes and he wouldn’t need a much better run to stand a real chance here.