Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Tips & Analysis, Chantilly – 1st October 2017

On any other weekend Saturday’s card at Newmarket would be the undoubted headline act. This, however, is Arc weekend. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – to give it its full title – is quite simply the best all age mile and a half event run anywhere in the world, with a win here regularly cementing a horse’s place as a racing legend.

Much in the vein of Royal Ascot, this jewel in the crown of French racing is a truly international affair. Germany – successful with Danedream in 2011 – send the hugely improved Dschingis Secret in pursuit of the prize, whilst the Japanese – who covet this race more than any other – rely on the dangerous Satono Diamond. With runners from England, Ireland, France and even Argentina set to go to post, the breadth of this race’s appeal continues to reach around the globe.

Trends To Look Out For

You wouldn’t have gone too far wrong simply backing the fillies and mares here in recent years, with the fairer sex having landed six of the past nine renewals. The odds would suggest that another filly will come home in front this year, but with only two winning favourites since 2004, it may not be quite so straightforward.

When looking at the ages of the winners, the recent evidence would suggest you can forget about anything aged five or above, as three or four year olds have won in each of the past 13 years. Bragging rights belong to the three year olds over this time, with the youngest runners recording nine wins over the period.

Betting Tips

Main Pick – Enable at Evens with Betfair

Alternative Tip – Order Of St George each way at 12/1 with Coral

With four Aidan O’Brien runners in the field and the Japanese runner Satono Noblesse set to act as a pacemaker for stablemate Satono Diamond, we don’t expect there to be any hanging around here. That will play into the hands of the likes of the tough as boots Brametot, and O’Brien’s St Leger winning duo of Capri and Order Of St George, but may well stretch the stamina of the well fancied Ulysses and unexpected runner Winter.

That said, Ulysses is improving at a rate of knots and we don’t know for sure that dual Guineas winner Winter doesn’t stay this far. As ever this looks an enthralling contest, but ultimately, we see proven class and stamina winning the day.

Being a three year old filly, John Gosden’s Enable goes straight onto the shortlist when it comes to trends. In terms of form and ability, she again sits right atop the pile. Enable hasn’t just won four Group 1 races on the spin, she has simply smashed the opposition to pieces, with winning margins of five lengths, five and a half lengths, four and a half lengths and five lengths again.

It’s hard to find a runner with no question marks against them though, and with Enable the slight doubt concerns her draw in stall two. Fellow superstar filly Danedream landed the prize from box number two in 2011, whilst Treve landed the second of her triumphs from stall three in 2014.

Significantly though, each of those races were run at Longchamp. In the first Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe run here at Chantilly last year, each of the first three home came from a double figure draw. One race is a pretty small sample size though, and we suspect that even if there is a slight bias towards higher numbers, this supremely talented daughter of Nathaniel will have the class to overcome it.

Aidan O’Brien’s stayer supreme, Order Of St George, showed he is by no means a one trick pony when producing an outstanding effort to finish third to stablemates Found and Highland Reel here 12 months ago, and there are sound reasons for believing he may improve on that display.

Given the proven stamina of this previous Ascot Gold Cup winner, the tougher this is the better, and supporters will no doubt be rubbing their hands together at the prospect of a soft ground Arc here. Order Of St George is good on soft ground, so good in fact that he is yet to taste defeat on such a surface. Four starts have yielded four wins, with two of those wins coming at the very highest level. Tapped for toe in the closing stages last year, this likely stiff test ought to suit him well and he can hit the frame once again.